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Iwo Baraniewski vs. Junior Tafa prediction, pick for UFC Fight Night 278

Iwo Baraniewski and Junior Tafa meet in the UFC Fight Night 278 main card opener Saturday at the Meta APEX in Las Vegas. Check out this quick breakdown of the matchup from MMA Junkie analyst Dan Tom.

Last event's results: 4-1-1
UFC main cards, 2026: 53-30-1

Iwo Baraniewski vs. Junior Tafa UFC Fight Night 278 preview

Baraniewski (8-0 MMA, 2-0 UFC) is undefeated in his pro career, and has won both of his UFC fights against Ibo Aslan and Austen Lane by first-round finish.

Tafa (7-5 MMA, 3-5 UFC) aims to remain in the win column after ending a two-fight skid in his last appearace, which was a first-round finish of Kevin Christian in May.

Iwo Baraniewski vs. Junior Tafa UFC Fight Night 278 expert pick, prediction

Despite having a slew of lighter-weight action fights stuck on the prelims, the UFC matchmakers can't help but force-feed us lower-level big guys on Fight Night main cards. But I digress.

In Mick Maynard and Sean Shelby's defense, Iwo Baraniewski vs. Junior Tafa should be an entertaining shit show for as long as it lasts.

Despite Tafa being a much more dangerous striker than his current betting odds suggest, the Australian native has traditionally struggled with anyone who can remotely mix it up with him.

I know we've mainly seen Baraniewski strike in his short UFC sample sizes so far, but the Polish fighter has some underrated grappling and submissions that I suspect will show themselves this Saturday.

The pick is Baraniewski to win by submission in Round 2.