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Cade Cavalli is settling into his role at the top of the Washington Nationals rotation

As Cade Cavalli put it, when you have 32 outings in a season, you are not going to have your best stuff every time. The key to being a good starting pitcher in this league is to manage the outing when you do not have your A game. This is something Cavalli is learning, and we are already seeing improvements.

Back in Mid-April, Cavalli had an outing where he could not get out of the second inning against the Pirates. The Nats big right hander just totally lost the zone and could not re-find it. It seemed like Cavalli was destined for a similar outing against the Marlins. He could not find the zone in the first inning, walking three batters, including one with the bases loaded.

However, we got to see the maturation process from Cavalli. He turned his outing around, giving the Nats five solid innings, only allowing two runs. Cavalli also did not walk a batter after that first inning. He told me that he “wanted to make the hitters swing the bat”. With Cavalli’s stuff, good things tend to happen when he is around the zone.

By the third inning, Cavalli really found his good stuff and started to bully the Marlins hitters. There was a neat overlay that showed Cavalli’s fastball and his curveball. It gave you a cool visual of just how nasty his stuff is. Just when you need to gear up for a 98 MPH fastball, he drops in a hammer of a curveball.

One theme that Cavalli kept emphasizing is that he is trying to learn everyday. Cavalli turns 28 in August, and has been in the Nats organization for a long time, but he is still an inexperienced pitcher. He was a two-way player for much of his college career and then lost a lot of reps due to his slow Tommy John recovery. Despite debuting in 2022, Cavalli has only made 24 career starts.

As an inexperienced member of this staff, Cavalli said he has learned a lot from veterans like Zack Littell and Miles Mikolas. He told me that seeing the routines of these older pitchers is helpful, saying “It is not necessarily having conversations with them, it is just being a part of their day. Seeing how they prepare for starts and treat their bodies”. For me, this emphasizes the importance of having veterans around. They don’t even need to be vocal leaders, just having young guys see what it takes to be in this game for a long time matters.

It is not like those veterans are not talking either. Cavalli told me that the starters like to sit in the dugout during games, and just talk about baseball. They discuss “little nuances of the game” as he put it. Whether that is pitch location, what pitch to throw in a specific count, or when to pick off.

Cavalli was named the Opening Day starter in Spring Training, but now it feels like he is truly settling into that role of being a frontline starter. In his last 7 starts, Cavalli has a 3.38 ERA with 46 strikeouts in 40 innings. For me, the inning pitched number is what truly stands out. At the beginning of the season, Cavalli was struggling to get through five innings. However, in these 7 starts, he is averaging 5.7 innings per outing.

Getting deeper into games is what will make Cavalli a top of the rotation starter. Hopefully, he can get that average to 6 innings as he enters his prime. I think Cavalli has the ability to go deep into games, but he needs to be more efficient. He has the ability to hold his velocity, but he has a tendency to have one really long inning.

When you watch Cavalli, you always get the sense that there is more in the tank. The combination of his fastball and curveball is a special foundation. His heater has been sitting at 97 MPH since the start of May, and the curveball is one of the best in the sport. Cavalli could be one of those pitchers who peaks in their early to mid 30’s.

Starting pitchers peaking in their 30’s is not too uncommon, especially for guys who do not have a lot of mileage on their arms. Zack Wheeler and Max Scherzer are two good examples of pitchers who truly hit their peak after 30. Cavalli is not going to be that caliber of arm, but I think the same idea applies for him. Due to his injuries and the fact he was not a full time pitcher in college, there are not a whole lot of innings in that arm, which is a good thing.

Cavalli also has some clear areas where he can improve as well. His command and control can both be hit or miss at times. He has outings where he is pounding the zone, but he can lose it very quickly. As he gets more experienced, Cavalli will learn how to settle in. We are seeing growth in that area, as shown by his last start.

Another area that Cavalli could explore is his changeup. I think Cavalli has the bones of a great changeup. However, he only uses it 9% of the time, and it feels like he does not trust it enough. When that pitch is working, it can be a devastating offering, especially to lefties. It has so much movement, and I think it could unlock a new element of his game.

While Cavalli is doing a good job keeping the ball in the yard, he has allowed a lot of hits this year. A pitcher with his stuff should not be allowing a .269 average against. His WHIP of 1.42 is also simply too high for a pitcher of his caliber. A part of that high WHIP is the 10 batters he has hit, most of them coming on breaking balls that hit batters in the foot.

There is so much for Cade Cavalli to learn and improve, yet he is already a good starting pitcher. He has a 3.62 ERA, a 3.00 FIP and a 3.76 xFIP. Imagine what Cavalli could be if he irons out some of the warts in his profile. I am not sure he has the command to be a true ace, but I think he has the ability to be a rock solid number two starter. Even in his current form, Cavalli is a number 3 starter in a good rotation, and he is just settling in right now. The sky remains the limit for the Nats big righty.

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