2026 World Cup: Harry Kane leads our picks for the group stage’s top scorer

As part of Yahoo's 2026 Soccer Pick 'Em with FOX One, you pick one player to score the most goals in the World Cup group stage this summer. Choosing from the list of 12 provided, you get three points for each goal that player scores in his team's first three games of the tournament.

The major and obvious difference between picking a top player here and picking a Golden Boot winner is that this contest is for the group stage only. That means players whose teams are less likely to make a deep run can be more valuable, and group matchups are more important, since a tough group can't be overcome simply by playing more games.

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You're still going to want a top team's player who ideally takes penalties, since one or two extra goals in the group stage are even more valuable than in a tournament-long competition.

Play 2026 Soccer Pick 'Em with FOX One and make your picks for the world's biggest soccer tournament

Here's a rundown of the Pick 'Em choices, beginning with my least-favorite pick and working up my list of preferences to my first choice …

Lamine Yamal (Spain)

Were he fully healthy, Yamal would be a much stronger candidate. Even though head coach Luis de la Fuente has said he could be fit for the opener, it's hard to see Yamal playing the majority of all three games. He's also only taken one penalty for Spain, so he may not be the first option if he's on the field.

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Romelu Lukaku (Belgium)

He did score his 90th international goal in a warm-up against Croatia, and he might take penalties if Kevin De Bruyne does not. But how much is he actually going to play as Belgium transitions to a new generation led by Jeremy Doku? Not enough for me to choose him.

Christian Pulisic (United States)

The Americans are Group D favorites, but only because they're playing at home. The teams of every other player on this list are much heavier favorites, so as much as I'd love to choose the U.S. penalty-taker, my head won't let me. The U.S. will face two defense-first teams in Paraguay and Australia, then a better team in Türkiye. Pulisic looked great in a tune-up against Senegal, but it's hard to see him getting more than two or three goals at best.

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Ousmane Dembélé (France) & Bakayo Saka (England)

The argument against both of these attackers is the same. Neither is the first-choice penalty-taker, and neither is the focal point of his team's attack. Each is capable of racking up shots and goals, but I'm not picking either one straight up.

Cody Gakpo (Netherlands)

Four years ago, Gakpo scored a goal in each group game as Netherlands made a run to the quarterfinals. He somehow keeps scoring goals for the Dutch, with 19 through 49 caps. Memphis Depay's injury concerns make Gakpo more appealing as a possible penalty-taker, but I think Depay will steal enough scoring opportunities from Gakpo to make me look elsewhere.

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Vinícius Júnior (Brazil)

For whatever reason, Vinicius Junior hasn't been able to replicate his club form on the international stage, with nine goals through his first 48 caps, including two in 11 qualifiers this cycle. He's taken only one penalty, so even though Brazil has two tasty matchups with massive underdogs Haiti and Scotland, I'm passing on Viní.

Cristiano Ronaldo (Portugal)

Ronaldo is the only man to score at five World Cups, but he had exactly one goal in four of those five tournaments. He did lead Portugal with five goals (one penalty) in qualifying, and he could certainly pad his stats against Uzbekistan and Congo, but I'd rather choose someone I expect to play more than the 41-year-old is likely to do.

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Lionel Messi (Argentina)

Messi nearly won the Golden Boot four years ago, and he led Argentina with eight goals in qualifying, double the total of any teammate. Surprisingly, none of those goals were penalties. Messi could easily bang in a few goals against minnow Jordan, or the 38-year-old could sit out that game and let his talented teammates handle things. I don't hate picking Messi for this, but I'm looking elsewhere.

Kylian Mbappé (France)

With a hat trick in the 2022 final, Mbappé walked away with the Golden Boot, and he has a total of 12 goals in two previous World Cups. However under head coach Didier Deschamps, France tends to favor a defensive style, despite its overwhelming offensive firepower. Because of that, I'm not convinced France will be at full power right out of the gate. I like Mbappé more as a Golden Boot winner than as the scoring leader after the group stage.

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Erling Haaland (Norway)

The world's best striker is certainly an appealing pick after scoring 16 goals (no penalties!) in eight qualifiers, especially in a contest like this one that doesn't require a long tournament run. But he didn't face a defense like group opponents France or even Senegal in any of those qualifiers. I don't begrudge anyone who wants to pick him, but he's my second choice here.

Harry Kane (England)

Eight years ago, Kane won the Golden Boot with six goals (three penalties), all in the group stage, including a hat trick against Panama. He again faces Panama this year, plus an aging Croatia and a Ghana side with defensive question marks. Head coach Thomas Tuchel has said he wants to play an aggressive style rather than the conservative approach of his predecessor, Gareth Southgate. England did just that in qualifying, outscoring opponents 22-0 in eight games, led by Kane with eight goals (one penalty). He's chalky, but he and England check all the boxes to make him my first choice.